One of nine capability dimensions
Anticipation
How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
This page puts the country comparison, indicator registry and documented cases together. It shows how much of the capability the current data can see.
52 countries in the frame7 indicators in the registry5 indicators with data52 countries with a score
<iframe src="https://ncb-envisioning.vercel.app/embed/compare/BRA/anticipation" title="Anticipation country comparison" loading="lazy" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin"></iframe>All countries use the same frame
The table opens alphabetically. Sort by score, confidence, coverage or trend. Scores need two observed indicators; trends use indicators observed at both ends.
Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each dot is a country. The box covers the middle half of the field, and the line is the median. Hollow dots have thin evidence.
| Argentina | 34.4 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +9.7(5) |
| Australia | 66.8 | 0.51 | 5 of 7 | +3.3(4) |
| Bolivia | 19.6 | 0.60 | 5 of 7 | +15.0(3) |
| Brazil | 37.3 | 0.54 | 5 of 7 | +10.8(4) |
| Canada | 66.3 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +6.5(5) |
| Chile | 39.3 | 0.62 | 5 of 7 | +9.2(5) |
| China | 35.1 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +14.5(5) |
| Colombia | 28.8 | 0.54 | 5 of 7 | +11.9(3) |
| Costa Rica | 33.4 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +7.4(5) |
| Cuba | 16.4 | 0.53 | 4 of 7 | +11.1(3) |
| Dominican Republic | 24.7 | 0.51 | 4 of 7 | +9.7(3) |
| Ecuador | 27.1 | 0.44 | 5 of 7 | +12.1(3) |
| El Salvador | 19.7 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +4.7(5) |
| Estonia | 63.9 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +14.0(5) |
| Ethiopia | 12.1 | 0.51 | 5 of 7 | +10.6(3) |
| Finland | 82.0 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +11.9(5) |
| France | 61.3 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +6.3(5) |
| Germany | 71.2 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +9.9(5) |
| Guatemala | 20.3 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +9.7(5) |
| Haiti | 0.0 | 0.40 | 3 of 7 | 0.0(3) |
| Honduras | 16.4 | 0.55 | 5 of 7 | +9.3(3) |
| India | 26.7 | 0.58 | 5 of 7 | +17.4(3) |
| Indonesia | 30.6 | 0.58 | 5 of 7 | +17.4(3) |
| Ireland | 67.1 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +9.7(5) |
| Israel | 80.6 | 0.52 | 4 of 7 | +16.5(4) |
| Japan | 64.7 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +12.7(5) |
| Kenya | 24.2 | 0.67 | 5 of 7 | +20.8(3) |
| Malaysia | 41.6 | 0.62 | 5 of 7 | +10.0(5) |
| Mexico | 30.5 | 0.67 | 5 of 7 | +7.2(5) |
| Netherlands | 72.3 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +11.4(5) |
| Nicaragua | 11.7 | 0.44 | 5 of 7 | +7.9(3) |
| Nigeria | 17.5 | 0.55 | 5 of 7 | +10.3(3) |
| Panama | 27.2 | 0.67 | 5 of 7 | +12.1(5) |
| Paraguay | 23.2 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +12.9(5) |
| Peru | 33.6 | 0.52 | 4 of 7 | +16.2(4) |
| Philippines | 24.1 | 0.58 | 5 of 7 | +10.8(3) |
| Poland | 55.7 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +13.6(5) |
| Rwanda | 21.4 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +12.4(5) |
| Singapore | 78.1 | 0.62 | 5 of 7 | +14.5(5) |
| South Africa | 35.5 | 0.62 | 5 of 7 | +7.3(5) |
| South Korea | 80.6 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +21.4(5) |
| Spain | 58.0 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +10.3(5) |
| Sweden | 83.5 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +10.0(5) |
| Switzerland | 81.1 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +8.3(5) |
| Thailand | 37.1 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +11.0(5) |
| Turkey | 44.0 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +11.8(5) |
| United Arab Emirates | 42.4 | 0.60 | 5 of 7 | +19.5(5) |
| United Kingdom | 65.3 | 0.58 | 5 of 7 | +8.2(4) |
| United States | 70.2 | 0.63 | 5 of 7 | +9.9(5) |
| Uruguay | 34.5 | 0.66 | 5 of 7 | +12.7(5) |
| Venezuela | 8.6 | 0.54 | 5 of 7 | -1.7(4) |
| Vietnam | 27.4 | 0.64 | 5 of 7 | +12.1(5) |
0 to 100 is a position inside the frame every country builds together. Zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame. It does not mean 10 percent of a capability.
Anticipation indicators
7 indicators define this capability. Gaps and retired rows remain because they lower confidence. Click a heading to sort.
- Cdirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
- Icapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
- Odownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
- Pperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.
Anticipation
| Note | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government foresight capacityno dataset | C | index 0-100 | higher is better | none | 0.20 | No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this. |
| I | % of R&D | higher is better | OECD MSTI | 0.30 | Published by OECD for members only. Missing for India, South Africa, Brazil in comparable form. | |
| R&D expenditure | I | % of GDP | higher is better | World Bank | 0.50 | Money committed to looking ahead. An input: spending it does not prove the country reads the future well. |
| Researchers in R&D | I | per million people | higher is better | World Bank | 0.50 | Standing capacity to investigate. Correlates with income but survives size normalisation. |
| Scientific articles | O | articles per million people | higher is better | World Bank | 0.40 | Volume, not quality. Citation impact would be the better measure and is a declared gap. |
| Secure internet servers | I | per million people | higher is better | World Bank | 0.60 | Proxy for digital technology adoption. Spans four orders of magnitude, so it is logged before normalising. |
| Statistical performance | C | index 0-100 | higher is better | World Bank | 0.25 | A country that cannot see itself cannot anticipate. Closest available direct measure of national sensing capacity. |
Documented deliveries add context to the data
These records describe a country doing something this capability should capture. They stay outside the score because one case is not a comparable series.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Embrapa, a fifty-year bet on tropical agriculturelinked to Government foresight capacity, started 1973, still operating
Brazil created a public agricultural research corporation in 1973 to make acidic tropical soils productive, kept it funded across every change of government since, and cereal production rose from 46.5 million tonnes in 2000 to 155.9 million in 2023.
155,877,082 tonnes, cereal production, 2023. World Bank, from FAO, retrieved 2026-08-26.
How it worked: A public research corporation with its own budget line, staffed by researchers sent abroad to train and then brought back, mandated against one specific national constraint rather than research in general.
Limits: Production is an outcome and the credit is shared with land expansion, subsidised credit and private plant breeding, so this number cannot separate the research from the rest. It also cannot see the cost: much of the expansion came from converting cerrado and forest. What the record actually evidences is fifty years of continuity in a public research mandate, which is the part no dataset measures.
The Delta Programme and its fundlinked to Government foresight capacity, started 2010, still operating
The Netherlands legislated a standing programme against flooding and fresh-water shortage, run by an independent Delta Commissioner and paid from a dedicated Delta Fund that expects 27.4 billion euros to be available through 2050.
27,400,000,000 euros, delta fund resources available to 2050, 2025. Delta Programme Commissioner, Delta Fund, retrieved 2026-08-27.
How it worked: Parliament wrote the Delta Act: a permanent commissioner proposes a rolling programme each year, statutory safety standards make the work non-optional, and a ring-fenced fund keeps the money out of annual budget fights.
Limits: A budget is an input: the number shows money committed, not risk reduced, and the same page says 30.8 billion is needed, so the fund is currently short of its own task. Spending on water at this scale is also ordinary for the Netherlands, which has run such works for a century. What the record evidences is the institutional form, a legally required programme, commissioner and fund that outlive governments, not the size of the number.
Lei de Informática, a sectoral industrial policylinked to Long-horizon research share, started 1991, still operating
Law 8.248/1991 tied information-technology incentives to annual research, development and innovation investment of at least 5 percent of eligible domestic gross revenue, creating a predictable regime for sectoral capability.
5 % of eligible domestic gross revenue, minimum annual r&d and innovation investment, 1991. Presidência da República, Lei 8.248/1991, retrieved 2026-08-29.
How it worked: The state exchanges a sector-specific incentive for commitments to domestic research, development, training and innovation, giving firms a reason to make longer-horizon plans within a stable policy frame.
Limits: The legal investment requirement is an input, not evidence of research quality, exports or firm growth. The regime is narrow, has been amended repeatedly and creates a renewal pressure that makes continuity part of the case rather than a settled result.
CGEE, the strategic studies centerlinked to Government foresight capacity, started 2001, still operating
Created in 2001, the Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos was designed to produce prospective studies and long-term recommendations for Brazilian science, technology and innovation policy, with 273 researchers and specialists signing its creation record.
273 researchers and specialists, participants signing the creation record, 2001. Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, CGEE report, retrieved 2026-08-29.
How it worked: Government creates a distinct organization to turn evidence and expert networks into long-horizon options, giving policymakers a place to ask what future conditions require before a crisis sets the agenda.
Limits: The creation record and a mandate for prospective studies show institutional intent, not whether foresight changes decisions or survives political pressure. CGEE operates within the science and technology policy system, so its reach does not cover every part of government.
Read how the benchmark turns an indicator into a score on the method page. The limits page records where this capability is still poorly observed.