Tests the model has to pass
They check for income bias, duplicate indicators, weak evidence and scores that change sharply when inputs change.
computed 2026-10-17123 countries
Three of nine dimensions track income per head
At 0.7 or more, a correlation with log GDP per capita counts as tracking income. These results use 123 countries; treat coefficients as hints.
| Anticipation | 0.863 | 0.905 | 123 |
| Experimentation | 0.739 | 0.874 | 120 |
| Learning | 0.709 | 0.740 | 123 |
| Building | 0.571 | 0.625 | 123 |
| Adaptability | 0.533 | 0.521 | 123 |
| Agency | 0.484 | 0.496 | 120 |
| Coordination | 0.429 | 0.468 | 120 |
| Trust | 0.423 | 0.465 | 121 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.244 | 0.261 | 118 |
One factor carries 47.7% of the variation
Principal components of the dimension scores over 110 countries with all nine capabilities scored. Chance at that size gives 16.2%, 17.8% at the 95th percentile. Treat it as a hint at 110 countries.
Over the 110 countries with all nine capabilities scored, one shared factor carries 47.7% of the variation. The same number of unrelated capabilities measured on 110 countries would give 16.2% by chance, and 17.8% in 19 draws out of 20. So the capabilities do move together, and 52.3% of the variation sits outside that one factor.
Across the 110 of those countries with an income figure, the shared factor correlates 0.82 with log GDP per head, so income accounts for 68% of it. The shared factor looks like income. What the benchmark can add beyond income sits in the other 52.3% of the variation and in how a country's capabilities differ from each other.
| Anticipation | 0.916 |
| Learning | 0.870 |
| Experimentation | 0.815 |
| Trust | 0.667 |
| Coordination | 0.650 |
| Building | 0.650 |
| Agency | 0.537 |
| Adaptability | 0.523 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.426 |
A loading is the dimension's correlation with the first factor. Eigenvalues, largest first: 4.29, 1.15, 0.95, 0.92, 0.51, 0.42, 0.35, 0.25, 0.16. They sum to 9, and the first over 9 is the share. Left out because a dimension has no score: ARE (Coordination, Trust); BFA (Experimentation); COG (Experimentation); CUB (Anticipation, Agency, Coordination, Trust, Learning, Shared Purpose); DNK (Coordination); GIN (Shared Purpose); GMB (Shared Purpose); HTI (Agency, Trust, Shared Purpose); IRN (Coordination); MLI (Experimentation); MWI (Agency); PNG (Shared Purpose); SDN (Agency); TTO (Shared Purpose); VEN (Coordination, Learning, Shared Purpose).
| Dataset | Dimensions | Countries | First-factor share | Chance mean | Chance 95th | r with income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0.0 | 9 | 40 | 53.7% | 20.1% | 23.1% | 0.87 (40) |
| 1.1.0 | 9 | 40 | 53.7% | 20.1% | 23.1% | 0.87 (40) |
| 2.0.0 | 7 | 36 | 59.4% | 24.0% | 27.7% | 0.88 (36) |
| 3.0.0 | 7 | 36 | 61.1% | 24.0% | 27.7% | 0.89 (36) |
| 4.0.0 | 6 | 50 | 70.4% | 24.9% | 28.5% | 0.90 (49) |
| 4.1.0 | 6 | 50 | 70.4% | 24.9% | 28.5% | 0.90 (49) |
| 4.3.0 | 6 | 50 | 70.4% | 24.9% | 28.5% | 0.90 (49) |
| 4.4.0 | 6 | 50 | 70.4% | 24.9% | 28.5% | 0.90 (49) |
| 4.5.0 | 9 | 32 | 60.9% | 21.3% | 24.7% | 0.89 (32) |
| 5.1.0 | 9 | 32 | 60.9% | 21.3% | 24.7% | 0.89 (32) |
| 6.1.0 | 9 | 33 | 60.4% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.89 (33) |
| 6.1.1 | 9 | 33 | 60.4% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.89 (33) |
| 6.1.2 | 9 | 33 | 60.4% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.89 (33) |
| 6.2.0 | 9 | 33 | 60.4% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.90 (33) |
| 7.0.0 | 9 | 33 | 49.8% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.87 (33) |
| 7.1.0 | 9 | 45 | 52.2% | 19.5% | 22.2% | 0.86 (45) |
| 7.2.0 | 9 | 49 | 51.2% | 19.1% | 21.7% | 0.87 (48) |
| 7.3.0 | 9 | 50 | 51.5% | 19.0% | 21.5% | 0.87 (49) |
| 7.4.0 | 9 | 51 | 52.9% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.86 (50) |
| 7.5.0 | 9 | 51 | 52.9% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.86 (50) |
| 7.6.0 | 9 | 51 | 52.9% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.86 (50) |
| 7.7.0 | 9 | 51 | 52.9% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.86 (50) |
| 7.7.1 | 9 | 51 | 53.1% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.86 (50) |
| 7.8.0 | 9 | 51 | 52.3% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.85 (50) |
| 8.0.0 | 9 | 51 | 48.5% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.84 (50) |
| 8.1.0 | 9 | 51 | 49.8% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.85 (50) |
| 8.2.0 | 9 | 51 | 49.6% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.84 (50) |
| 8.3.0 | 9 | 51 | 49.6% | 18.9% | 21.5% | 0.84 (50) |
| 9.0.0 | 9 | 123 | 50.5% | 15.9% | 17.5% | 0.81 (122) |
| 9.0.1 | 9 | 123 | 50.5% | 15.9% | 17.5% | 0.81 (122) |
| 9.1.0 | 9 | 123 | 50.4% | 15.9% | 17.5% | 0.81 (122) |
| 9.2.0 | 9 | 115 | 49.4% | 16.1% | 17.7% | 0.81 (115) |
| 9.3.0 | 9 | 115 | 49.4% | 16.1% | 17.7% | 0.81 (115) |
| 9.4.0 | 9 | 110 | 47.7% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 0.82 (110) |
Read from each release's committed output. A release with fewer than nine dimensions had too few countries with all nine scored, so it reads the dimensions scored for at least 90% of countries.
What is left after income still moves together
Four tests on the wealth residual over the 110 countries with all nine capabilities and an income figure, with every rule fixed before the first run. Treat each as a hint at 110 countries. No country's residual is published.
The strong claim, that capability is separate from wealth, does not hold for what the nine capabilities share: that shared part is mostly income.
The weaker claim holds on this data. Countries at the same income have different capability shapes, and the shapes are organized beyond chance, so a capability profile carries information that income does not. The order of the leftovers mostly survives indicator changes, so the shapes are not only a product of which indicators were chosen. The margin over chance is narrow, 22.6% against 19.4%, so this is the reading most likely to change as countries are added.
The weaker claim holds when shapes differ and the release test does not churn; it fails when peers are alike, or when there is no structure and the shapes read as noise; it is mixed otherwise. Rules and their order are in D138.
Does what is left move together? Reads structure
Take out of each capability the part its income predicts, and the leftovers still move together. Across the 110 countries with all nine, one factor carries 29.3% of what is left, where unrelated leftovers would give 16.3% by chance and 18.0% in 19 draws out of 20. It runs mostly through Anticipation, Learning, Coordination and Trust.
| Anticipation | 0.797 |
| Learning | 0.751 |
| Coordination | 0.663 |
| Trust | 0.654 |
| Experimentation | 0.480 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.433 |
| Agency | 0.262 |
| Building | 0.260 |
| Adaptability | 0.136 |
First-factor share 29.3%. Eigenvalues, largest first: 2.64, 1.48, 1.17, 1.11, 0.65, 0.60, 0.50, 0.48, 0.38. Chance at 109 countries, one fewer because the income line uses one up: 16.3%, 95th 18.0% (2000 draws, seed 20261001). Each residual column shuffled on its own: 16.2%, 95th 17.8% (2000 draws, seed 20261002). A share above the chance 95th reads structure.
Do countries at the same income share a shape? Reads shapes differ
Countries at the same income do not share a shape. A country's shape sits about as far from its 10 nearest neighbors in income as from countries picked at random (a mean distance of 1.44 against 1.48), and the shapes line up along patterns that leftovers dealt out at random do not produce: one pattern carries 22.6% of them, against 19.4% at the random 95th percentile. Neighbors still differ less than leftovers dealt out at random would (1.44 against 1.78), because part of what is left is a level: a country above its income line on one capability tends to sit above it on others.
| Figure | Observed | Null | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer distance against peers picked without regard to income | 1.44 | 1.48 (5th 1.43, 95th 1.51) | below the 5th reads peers alike |
| Shape pattern share against leftovers dealt out at random | 22.6% | 17.6% (95th 19.4%) | above the 95th reads shapes differ |
| Peer distance against leftovers dealt out at random | 1.44 | 1.78 (5th 1.71, 95th 1.84) | descriptive, not read |
| Countries beyond their own random 95th | 2.7% | 5.0% (95th 8.2%) | descriptive, not read |
Each residual is divided by its spread so every capability counts the same, and a shape is a country's nine values minus their own mean. Peer distance is the mean squared gap between a country's shape and each of its peers', averaged over countries. One null keeps every profile whole and deals the incomes out at random, so peers become countries picked without regard to income. The other deals each capability's residuals out across countries, which keeps their spread and breaks any link between one country's nine. 2000 draws each, seeds 20261003 and 20261004.
Does the order hold still? Reads mixed between releases, robust without one country
The order of the leftovers mostly holds between releases. Across 41 capability-by-release comparisons where an indicator change moved them, the rank correlation with the release before fell as low as 0.72 on Trust (n 36), and never below 0.50, where the page would say the leftovers read the indicators more than the countries. Dropping any one country moves an income line by at most 0.47 standard errors, and that country's own leftover by at most 0.11 of the spread around the line, so no single country carries a line.
| Anticipation | 2 | 0.90 | 0.82 (51) | 0.45 | 0.11 | 123 |
| Agency | 5 | 0.87 | 0.78 (51) | 0.25 | 0.07 | 120 |
| Coordination | 3 | 0.84 | 0.74 (44) | 0.47 | 0.11 | 120 |
| Trust | 5 | 0.89 | 0.72 (36) | 0.33 | 0.08 | 121 |
| Learning | 5 | 0.91 | 0.87 (51) | 0.45 | 0.11 | 123 |
| Experimentation | 6 | 0.97 | 0.91 (50) | 0.32 | 0.08 | 120 |
| Adaptability | 5 | 0.84 | 0.73 (51) | 0.28 | 0.07 | 123 |
| Building | 5 | 0.99 | 0.98 (51) | 0.35 | 0.08 | 123 |
| Shared Purpose | 5 | 0.94 | 0.76 (47) | 0.34 | 0.08 | 118 |
Rank r is the Spearman correlation of a capability's residual order with the release before, over the countries in both, counted only where a release kept the same countries and moved some residual on that capability by 0.05 points or more. Read across 34 dataset releases, 30 pairs with the same countries. Every lowest value at 0.8 or more reads stable, any below 0.5 reads churning. The shifts are the largest when any one country is dropped and the line refitted: of the slope in its standard errors, and of that country's own residual in the spread around the line, where more than 1 reads fragile.
How much of a profile is income? Reads part
For the typical country, income accounts for 25.3% of how far its profile sits from the average profile, and 25.5% on average across 110 countries. Income is part of a capability profile, and most of it is something else.
For each of 110 countries, one minus its nine squared residuals over its nine squared distances from each capability's average. Mean 25.5%, median 25.3%, pooled over all countries 38.7%. A mean of 50.0% or more reads most, 25.0% or more reads part.
Anticipation fails without wealth-correlated data
4 indicators meet the 0.7 correlation threshold. This table shows the shift after removing them. Anticipation lose every measured indicator.
| Learning | 6.19 | 115 |
| Experimentation | 3.32 | 111 |
| Agency | 0.00 | 0 |
| Coordination | 0.00 | 0 |
| Trust | 0.00 | 0 |
| Adaptability | 0.00 | 0 |
| Building | 0.00 | 0 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.00 | 0 |
| Anticipation | cannot be scored | 124 |
Indicators that track income
This compares each indicator with log GDP per capita and with the registry's prior.
| Human Capital Index | Learning | direct capability measure | 0.900 | 0.50 |
| Statistical performance | Anticipation | direct capability measure | 0.802 | 0.25 |
| Scientific articles | Anticipation | downstream outcome | 0.758 | 0.40 |
| New public software repositories | Experimentation | downstream outcome | 0.716 | 0.70 |
| Resident trademark applications | Experimentation | downstream outcome | 0.635 | 0.30 |
| Resident patent applications | Experimentation | downstream outcome | 0.622 | 0.45 |
| Generalised interpersonal trust | Trust | perception proxy | 0.604 | 0.25 |
| Economic fitness | Building | downstream outcome | 0.543 | 0.45 |
| High-technology exports | Building | downstream outcome | 0.538 | 0.40 |
| Export diversification | Adaptability | direct capability measure | 0.535 | 0.30 |
| Bribery incidence | Trust | downstream outcome | 0.533 | 0.50 |
| Long-term unemployment share | Adaptability | downstream outcome | 0.495 | 0.20 |
| Trade compliance efficiency | Coordination | direct capability measure | 0.482 | 0.30 |
| Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure | Experimentation | perception proxy | 0.478 | 0.10 |
| New business density | Agency | direct capability measure | 0.473 | 0.35 |
| Government compliance with the courts | Trust | downstream outcome | 0.449 | 0.40 |
| Resident industrial design applications | Experimentation | downstream outcome | 0.447 | 0.30 |
| Dispute resolution efficiency | Trust | direct capability measure | 0.411 | 0.20 |
| Business entry efficiency | Agency | direct capability measure | 0.408 | 0.20 |
| Firms offering formal training | Learning | direct capability measure | 0.381 | 0.20 |
| Income inequality | Shared Purpose | downstream outcome | 0.355 | 0.20 |
| Research citation impact | Learning | downstream outcome | 0.335 | 0.60 |
| New export products | Adaptability | downstream outcome | 0.334 | 0.20 |
| Procedures to start a business | Agency | direct capability measure | 0.327 | 0.15 |
| Cooperation beyond the in-group | Trust | perception proxy | 0.318 | 0.15 |
| Tax revenue | Shared Purpose | downstream outcome | 0.317 | 0.30 |
| Early-stage entrepreneurial activity | Experimentation | direct capability measure | -0.296 | 0.15 |
| Civil society strength | Coordination | direct capability measure | 0.281 | 0.15 |
| Civic participation | Shared Purpose | direct capability measure | -0.271 | 0.10 |
| Manufacturing value added | Building | downstream outcome | 0.232 | 0.20 |
| Electricity connection speed | Building | direct capability measure | 0.214 | 0.25 |
| Budget execution fidelity | Coordination | direct capability measure | 0.210 | 0.15 |
| Unemployment rate | Adaptability | downstream outcome | 0.072 | 0.25 |
| Perceived control over life | Agency | perception proxy | -0.006 | 0.20 |
When one indicator drives the income signal
Each row removes one indicator. A positive delta means the dimension tracks income more without it.
| Human Capital Index | Learning | 0.709 | 0.437 | +0.272 |
| Income inequality | Shared Purpose | 0.208 | 0.068 | +0.140 |
| Economic fitness | Building | 0.571 | 0.438 | +0.134 |
| New business density | Agency | 0.442 | 0.315 | +0.127 |
| Government compliance with the courts | Trust | 0.402 | 0.284 | +0.118 |
| Tax revenue | Shared Purpose | 0.208 | 0.098 | +0.111 |
| Statistical performance | Anticipation | 0.863 | 0.758 | +0.105 |
| Export diversification | Adaptability | 0.533 | 0.440 | +0.093 |
| Long-term unemployment share | Adaptability | 0.533 | 0.448 | +0.085 |
| Civil society strength | Coordination | 0.367 | 0.285 | +0.082 |
| New public software repositories | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.666 | +0.080 |
| Dispute resolution efficiency | Trust | 0.402 | 0.333 | +0.069 |
| High-technology exports | Building | 0.571 | 0.502 | +0.069 |
| Scientific articles | Anticipation | 0.863 | 0.802 | +0.061 |
| Trade compliance efficiency | Coordination | 0.367 | 0.319 | +0.049 |
| Bribery incidence | Trust | 0.402 | 0.362 | +0.040 |
| Resident patent applications | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.728 | +0.018 |
| Business entry efficiency | Agency | 0.442 | 0.425 | +0.017 |
| New export products | Adaptability | 0.533 | 0.516 | +0.017 |
| Resident trademark applications | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.730 | +0.015 |
| Budget execution fidelity | Coordination | 0.367 | 0.353 | +0.014 |
| Early-stage entrepreneurial activity | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.736 | +0.009 |
| Perceived control over life | Agency | 0.442 | 0.439 | +0.003 |
| Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.745 | 0.000 |
| Electricity connection speed | Building | 0.571 | 0.583 | -0.012 |
| Procedures to start a business | Agency | 0.442 | 0.458 | -0.016 |
| Firms offering formal training | Learning | 0.709 | 0.733 | -0.024 |
| Manufacturing value added | Building | 0.571 | 0.604 | -0.032 |
| Resident industrial design applications | Experimentation | 0.745 | 0.783 | -0.038 |
| Unemployment rate | Adaptability | 0.533 | 0.586 | -0.053 |
| Generalised interpersonal trust | Trust | 0.402 | 0.460 | -0.058 |
| Research citation impact | Learning | 0.709 | 0.777 | -0.068 |
| Cooperation beyond the in-group | Trust | 0.402 | 0.496 | -0.094 |
| Civic participation | Shared Purpose | 0.208 | 0.401 | -0.193 |
Seven of nine panel estimates track income per head
The panel reads the same published record as the indicators, so it is not independent evidence. It gets the same GDP test, with same-country indicator results beside it.
| Anticipation | 0.866 | 0.863 | +0.003 | 123 |
| Learning | 0.846 | 0.709 | +0.137 | 123 |
| Experimentation | 0.784 | 0.739 | +0.045 | 123 |
| Building | 0.758 | 0.571 | +0.187 | 123 |
| Adaptability | 0.751 | 0.533 | +0.218 | 123 |
| Coordination | 0.734 | 0.429 | +0.305 | 123 |
| Agency | 0.730 | 0.484 | +0.246 | 123 |
| Trust | 0.647 | 0.423 | +0.223 | 123 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.587 | 0.244 | +0.342 | 123 |
No indicator pairs are redundant
Pairs at 0.85 correlation or above. They are candidates for review, not automatic removals.
The same pairs are drawn as lanes, each indicator placed by its correlation with income and every pair above joined by a line.
The dimensions remain distinct
Dimension pairs sorted by correlation. Pairs at 0.9 or above are candidates for review.
| Anticipation | Learning | 0.759 |
| Anticipation | Experimentation | 0.745 |
| Learning | Experimentation | 0.674 |
| Experimentation | Building | 0.637 |
| Anticipation | Coordination | 0.587 |
| Anticipation | Trust | 0.562 |
| Trust | Learning | 0.561 |
| Coordination | Trust | 0.556 |
| Anticipation | Building | 0.539 |
| Anticipation | Adaptability | 0.534 |
| Anticipation | Agency | 0.528 |
| Coordination | Learning | 0.511 |
| Learning | Building | 0.496 |
| Adaptability | Building | 0.485 |
| Agency | Learning | 0.475 |
| Experimentation | Adaptability | 0.431 |
| Agency | Experimentation | 0.425 |
| Coordination | Experimentation | 0.410 |
| Anticipation | Shared Purpose | 0.405 |
| Trust | Experimentation | 0.385 |
| Learning | Adaptability | 0.365 |
| Agency | Trust | 0.316 |
| Coordination | Building | 0.295 |
| Learning | Shared Purpose | 0.294 |
| Adaptability | Shared Purpose | 0.294 |
| Agency | Shared Purpose | 0.289 |
| Trust | Building | 0.288 |
| Trust | Shared Purpose | 0.274 |
| Coordination | Adaptability | 0.272 |
| Coordination | Shared Purpose | 0.257 |
| Trust | Adaptability | 0.215 |
| Agency | Adaptability | 0.210 |
| Agency | Building | 0.206 |
| Agency | Coordination | 0.175 |
| Experimentation | Shared Purpose | 0.162 |
| Building | Shared Purpose | 0.128 |
Evidence is strongest for Adaptability and weakest for Shared Purpose
Subjectivity share counts perception proxies and indicators with no dataset. Shared Purpose is the weakest: three of its seven indicators are observed and its mean confidence is 0.32.
| Adaptability | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| Building | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| Learning | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| Agency | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| Anticipation | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| Trust | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.73 |
| Experimentation | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| Coordination | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.67 |
| Shared Purpose | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.57 |
Every indicator family has data behind it
A dimension can ask two questions under one name, and several readings of one question are not several independent signals. Scoring counts every observed indicator equally either way. This table says which family the evidence came from.
0% of observed values clamp at the frame edge
0 of 3555 observed cells fall outside the frame and clamp to 0 or 100. These are historical or late-arriving values.
Indicators with no data
The model specifies them, but no adequate dataset covers them. They stay in the registry and lower confidence.
| Why it is missing | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Adaptability | Disaster preparedness and recovery | INFORM / UNDRR | No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo. |
| Adaptability | Institutional responsiveness | none | No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably. |
| Agency | Adults doing digital tasks | ITU / UNESCO UIS | Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later. |
| Anticipation | Government foresight capacity | none | No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this. |
| Anticipation | Long-horizon research commitments | none | Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more. |
| Building | Large project delivery | none | The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20. |
| Building | Firm scale-up rate | OECD DynEmp | OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa. |
| Coordination | University-industry collaboration | Global Innovation Index | GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4. |
| Coordination | Public-private collaboration | none | No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity. |
| Experimentation | Venture deals | OECD / national VC associations | Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured. |
| Experimentation | Firms through regulatory sandboxes | national regulators | Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more. |
| Experimentation | University spinouts | national TTO associations | Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout. |
| Learning | Adult learning participation | Eurostat / OECD PIAAC | The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members. |
| Shared Purpose | Sense of national belonging | Joint EVS/WVS | A declared gap again since 2026-10-02 (D151, which supersedes the retirement in D143). The project still wants to know whether people count themselves members of the community whose common project this capability asks about, so the row stays even though no series can fill it. The only cross-national item aimed at it, national pride (G006) in the Joint EVS/WVS, is not wired: pride is not belonging, and it fails the regime test of artefact A13, with electoral autocracies at 75 percent very proud against 47 in liberal democracies. ISSP 2023 asks about closeness to the country in 16 countries. Wireable on an item that reads the same in every regime class, or on a behaviour of belonging, for half the frame or more. High national pride must never be read as the capacity for collective action. |
| Shared Purpose | Volunteering | Gallup World Poll / CAF | CAF publishes country figures but the underlying Gallup microdata is proprietary, so it fails the inspectability rule. |
| Shared Purpose | Political polarisation | V-Dem | V-Dem political polarization (v2cacamps) is published beside this dimension as a behavioral check and is not scored, because a regime with no organized opposition reads as calm (D121, A13). The gap stays open for a measure that can tell calm between competing camps from calm where no camp may compete. Pluralism is the target, so only hostile polarization should count against a country. |
| Trust | Trust in public institutions | OECD Trust Survey / WVS | The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132. |
| Trust | Court case clearance rate | CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics | Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57. |
Datasets we rejected
Retired rows stay in the registry and lower confidence like gaps. The reason for each rejection is recorded.
| Why it was rejected | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agency | Time to start a business | World Bank | Retired 2026-10-17 (D167). Doing Business stopped in 2019 and the World Bank archived the code. Its successor, B-READY, publishes the time and cost to register a firm as a score, and business entry efficiency carries that construct. See D23. |
| Building | Logistics infrastructure quality | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23. |
| Coordination | Government effectiveness | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4. |
| Coordination | Regulatory quality | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4. |
| Coordination | Logistics performance | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23. |
| Coordination | Border compliance time to export | World Bank | Retired 2026-10-17 (D167). Doing Business stopped in 2019 and the World Bank archived the code. B-READY trade efficiency carries the construct, the time and cost of border compliance, now reported by firms. See D23. |
| Experimentation | Business share of R&D | OECD MSTI / RICYT | Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142. |
| Shared Purpose | Voice and accountability | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. Artefact A5: it measures the democratic channel while Shared Purpose asks whether people can see themselves in a common project. Singapore scored 20.9 while being one of the most effective collective actors in the set. Volunteering and civic participation are the observable replacements and are declared gaps; voter turnout is published beside Shared Purpose as a check, because it reads the same democratic channel and compulsory voting (D129). See D23 and A5. |
| Trust | Rule of law | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4. |
| Trust | Control of corruption | World Bank | Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4. |
| Trust | Time to enforce a contract | World Bank | Retired 2026-10-17 (D167). Doing Business stopped in 2019 and the World Bank archived the code. B-READY dispute resolution efficiency carries the construct, the time and cost to resolve a commercial dispute and enforce the decision. See D23. |
| Trust | Intentional homicide rate | World Bank | Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap. |