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NCBNational Capability Benchmark
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Challenge the benchmark

Choose a score and give the benchmark a specific reason to reconsider it.

When you submit, the form attaches the current score and confidence for the country and capability you chose.

Submissions are public and start as awaiting review. A maintainer can add a response and signature after review.

Panel estimates never enter a score

A panel reviews selected dimensions from the source-backed evidence and audits the registry. Its estimates do not change the indicator score or confidence.

run 2026-10-17T14-24-56-314Z-in_session2 rounds3 panelistsworking sessiondataset 9.4.0full runcoverage โ‰ค 1

Each panelist holds a fixed stance

The stance explains why panelists disagree.

In-session one-vendor panel under D154(b) as amended by D155, run on 2026-10-17 by a Claude Code orchestrating session (Claude Opus 5.5) on dataset 9.4.0, after D167. Three panelists, each stance a separate set of contexts: institutionalist on claude-opus-5-5, bottom_up on claude-opus-5-5, wealth_sceptic on claude-sonnet-5-5, all Anthropic, each through Claude Code subagents. Each panelist answered in batches of ten countries, one fresh context per batch and per round, and the indicator audit in one context per stance, so no context held two stances and none saw another panelist's text except the anonymised round-1 summary the round-2 prompt carries. Two rounds plus the indicator audit, at maxCoverage 1: all nine dimensions for all 125 countries, 1125 country-dimension cells, not the 0.5 ceiling of the 9.0.1 run. Prompts are byte-identical to a gateway run's, built by pnpm bench delphi --in-session with the current prompt version; the system rules were given as a file each panelist read first. Every batch reported it read every prompt in full and wrote every answer by hand. A first attempt the same day stopped at the account's usage limit before any batch finished; its partial answers were discarded and every prompt was regenerated and answered from scratch. No call in this run failed and none was rerun into it. One vendor means the spread measures stance, not vendor, and shared model-family blind spots are hidden by a narrow IQR, which is a floor on real uncertainty (D155). A multi-vendor or gateway run on the same dataset supersedes this one. This is an interpretation layer: its estimates reach only delphiScore and delphiIqr, and blendedScore only where a dimension has no observed indicator; they never enter score.

StanceModelPanelist id
Institutionalistclaude-opus-5-5institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5
Bottom-up analystclaude-opus-5-5bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5
Wealth scepticclaude-sonnet-5-5wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5

Where the panel disagreed

A cell is marked when the middle half of the panel spans more than 25 points.

No cell has an interquartile range above 25 points.

What moved between rounds

A negative IQR shift means the panel narrowed.

How the panel rated each indicator

Each indicator gets a class, a validity rating and a wealth-proxy risk rating. The weakest validity comes first.

IndicatorRegistry classPanel classConstruct validityWealth proxy riskRegistry priorRedundancy votes
Intentional homicide rateOO0.200.630.35none
Business share of R&DII0.220.600.70none
Unemployment rateOO0.230.270.25Long-term unemployment share (2)
Voice and accountabilityPP0.250.750.35none
Regulatory qualityPP0.270.900.60Government effectiveness (3)
High-technology exportsOO0.270.430.40Economic fitness (3), Manufacturing value added (1)
Income inequalityOO0.270.350.20none
Scientific articlesOOdisputed0.280.780.40none
Logistics infrastructure qualityPP0.280.780.50none
Export diversificationCO0.300.520.30New export products (3)
Manufacturing value addedOO0.300.300.20High-technology exports (1)
Logistics performancePP0.320.780.50Trade compliance efficiency (2)
Control of corruptionPP0.320.880.55Rule of law (3)
Tax revenueOO0.320.600.30none
Procedures to start a businessCI0.350.350.15Business entry efficiency (3), Time to start a business (2)
Perceived control over lifePP0.350.320.20none
Government effectivenessPP0.350.900.60Regulatory quality (3)
Trust in public institutionsPP0.350.350.20Government compliance with the courts (1)
Resident patent applicationsOO0.370.730.45Resident industrial design applications (2), Resident trademark applications (2)
Resident industrial design applicationsOO0.370.550.30Resident trademark applications (3), Resident patent applications (2)
Adults doing digital tasksCOdisputed0.380.730.40none
Rule of lawPP0.380.850.55Control of corruption (3)
Time to start a businessCI0.400.400.20Business entry efficiency (3), Procedures to start a business (3)
University-industry collaborationCP0.400.730.40Public-private collaboration (2)
Tolerance of entrepreneurial failurePP0.400.300.10Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (2)
University spinoutsCO0.400.700.35Resident patent applications (1)
Economic fitnessOO0.400.670.45High-technology exports (3), New export products (1)
Research citation impactOO0.420.600.60none
Business entry efficiencyCI0.430.470.20Procedures to start a business (3), Time to start a business (3)
Resident trademark applicationsOO0.430.570.30Resident industrial design applications (3), Resident patent applications (1)
Long-term unemployment shareOO0.430.330.20Unemployment rate (3)
Political polarisationPP0.430.270.05none
Time to enforce a contractCCdisputed0.450.430.20Dispute resolution efficiency (3), Court case clearance rate (1)
New public software repositoriesOO0.450.580.70none
Long-horizon research commitmentsCC0.470.480.30none
Trade compliance efficiencyCCdisputed0.470.530.30Border compliance time to export (3), Logistics performance (2)
Venture dealsCO0.470.680.60Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (1)
New business densityCO0.480.600.35Business entry efficiency (1)
Border compliance time to exportCCdisputed0.480.500.30Trade compliance efficiency (3)
Civil society strengthCP0.480.480.15none

Evidence the panel asked for

Panelists name evidence they want to see. The list feeds the collection agenda.

EvidenceMentionsDimensions
cross-agency delivery records3271
adult learning participation2831
court case clearance rate2591
venture first-round counts1571
institutional responsiveness timestamps1571
firm scale-up rate1413
gem tea rate972
court case clearance rates911
large project delivery dataset881
adults doing digital tasks791
perceived control over life791
volunteering671
government foresight capacity601
large project delivery register591
large project delivery record571
civic participation521
long-term unemployment share501
sense of national belonging501
volunteering data501
trade compliance efficiency481
hostile polarisation measure481
large project delivery records481
generalised interpersonal trust481
government foresight capacity records421
b-ready business entry score411
venture deal counts411
dispute resolution efficiency391
behavioural trust measure381
government foresight capacity register361
civic participation item361