Panel estimates never enter a score
A panel reviews selected dimensions from the source-backed evidence and audits the registry. Its estimates do not change the indicator score or confidence.
run 2026-10-17T14-24-56-314Z-in_session2 rounds3 panelistsworking sessiondataset 9.4.0full runcoverage โค 1
Each panelist holds a fixed stance
The stance explains why panelists disagree.
In-session one-vendor panel under D154(b) as amended by D155, run on 2026-10-17 by a Claude Code orchestrating session (Claude Opus 5.5) on dataset 9.4.0, after D167. Three panelists, each stance a separate set of contexts: institutionalist on claude-opus-5-5, bottom_up on claude-opus-5-5, wealth_sceptic on claude-sonnet-5-5, all Anthropic, each through Claude Code subagents. Each panelist answered in batches of ten countries, one fresh context per batch and per round, and the indicator audit in one context per stance, so no context held two stances and none saw another panelist's text except the anonymised round-1 summary the round-2 prompt carries. Two rounds plus the indicator audit, at maxCoverage 1: all nine dimensions for all 125 countries, 1125 country-dimension cells, not the 0.5 ceiling of the 9.0.1 run. Prompts are byte-identical to a gateway run's, built by pnpm bench delphi --in-session with the current prompt version; the system rules were given as a file each panelist read first. Every batch reported it read every prompt in full and wrote every answer by hand. A first attempt the same day stopped at the account's usage limit before any batch finished; its partial answers were discarded and every prompt was regenerated and answered from scratch. No call in this run failed and none was rerun into it. One vendor means the spread measures stance, not vendor, and shared model-family blind spots are hidden by a narrow IQR, which is a floor on real uncertainty (D155). A multi-vendor or gateway run on the same dataset supersedes this one. This is an interpretation layer: its estimates reach only delphiScore and delphiIqr, and blendedScore only where a dimension has no observed indicator; they never enter score.
| Stance | Model | Panelist id |
|---|---|---|
| Institutionalist | claude-opus-5-5 | institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5 |
| Bottom-up analyst | claude-opus-5-5 | bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5 |
| Wealth sceptic | claude-sonnet-5-5 | wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5 |
Where the panel disagreed
A cell is marked when the middle half of the panel spans more than 25 points.
No cell has an interquartile range above 25 points.
What moved between rounds
A negative IQR shift means the panel narrowed.
| Country | Dimension | Median | Median shift | IQR | IQR shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyzstan | Adaptability | 52.0 | -10.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 |
| Lebanon | Coordination | 30.0 | -8.0 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
| Myanmar | Adaptability | 30.0 | -8.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Mali | Trust | 27.0 | -7.0 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| Armenia | Shared Purpose | 52.0 | -6.0 | 1.0 | -6.0 |
| Burundi | Shared Purpose | 24.0 | -6.0 | 3.5 | -4.0 |
| Canada | Building | 44.0 | -6.0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| Ireland | Building | 52.0 | -6.0 | 3.5 | -4.5 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Agency | 56.0 | -6.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| Lebanon | Adaptability | 36.0 | -6.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| Panama | Adaptability | 56.0 | -6.0 | 2.0 | -1.5 |
| Philippines | Shared Purpose | 46.0 | -6.0 | 3.0 | -4.0 |
| United Arab Emirates | Coordination | 55.0 | -5.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| Ghana | Experimentation | 15.0 | -5.0 | 4.5 | -1.0 |
| Guinea-Bissau | Shared Purpose | 30.0 | -5.0 | 3.0 | -2.5 |
| Nicaragua | Agency | 30.0 | -5.0 | 2.5 | -4.0 |
| Papua New Guinea | Trust | 25.0 | -5.0 | 2.0 | -4.5 |
| Rwanda | Agency | 55.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 |
| Tunisia | Shared Purpose | 37.0 | -5.0 | 2.0 | -2.5 |
| Albania | Adaptability | 48.0 | -4.0 | 2.0 | -3.0 |
| Armenia | Trust | 46.0 | -4.0 | 0.5 | -3.5 |
| Armenia | Adaptability | 56.0 | -4.0 | 1.5 | -4.5 |
| Burundi | Agency | 28.0 | -4.0 | 3.0 | -4.5 |
| Burundi | Adaptability | 18.0 | -4.0 | 2.0 | -4.0 |
| Burkina Faso | Agency | 46.0 | -4.0 | 5.5 | -2.0 |
How the panel rated each indicator
Each indicator gets a class, a validity rating and a wealth-proxy risk rating. The weakest validity comes first.
| Indicator | Registry class | Panel class | Construct validity | Wealth proxy risk | Registry prior | Redundancy votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intentional homicide rate | O | O | 0.20 | 0.63 | 0.35 | none |
| Business share of R&D | I | I | 0.22 | 0.60 | 0.70 | none |
| Unemployment rate | O | O | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.25 | Long-term unemployment share (2) |
| Voice and accountability | P | P | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.35 | none |
| Regulatory quality | P | P | 0.27 | 0.90 | 0.60 | Government effectiveness (3) |
| High-technology exports | O | O | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.40 | Economic fitness (3), Manufacturing value added (1) |
| Income inequality | O | O | 0.27 | 0.35 | 0.20 | none |
| Scientific articles | O | Odisputed | 0.28 | 0.78 | 0.40 | none |
| Logistics infrastructure quality | P | P | 0.28 | 0.78 | 0.50 | none |
| Export diversification | C | O | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.30 | New export products (3) |
| Manufacturing value added | O | O | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.20 | High-technology exports (1) |
| Logistics performance | P | P | 0.32 | 0.78 | 0.50 | Trade compliance efficiency (2) |
| Control of corruption | P | P | 0.32 | 0.88 | 0.55 | Rule of law (3) |
| Tax revenue | O | O | 0.32 | 0.60 | 0.30 | none |
| Procedures to start a business | C | I | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.15 | Business entry efficiency (3), Time to start a business (2) |
| Perceived control over life | P | P | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.20 | none |
| Government effectiveness | P | P | 0.35 | 0.90 | 0.60 | Regulatory quality (3) |
| Trust in public institutions | P | P | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.20 | Government compliance with the courts (1) |
| Resident patent applications | O | O | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.45 | Resident industrial design applications (2), Resident trademark applications (2) |
| Resident industrial design applications | O | O | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.30 | Resident trademark applications (3), Resident patent applications (2) |
| Adults doing digital tasks | C | Odisputed | 0.38 | 0.73 | 0.40 | none |
| Rule of law | P | P | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.55 | Control of corruption (3) |
| Time to start a business | C | I | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.20 | Business entry efficiency (3), Procedures to start a business (3) |
| University-industry collaboration | C | P | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.40 | Public-private collaboration (2) |
| Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure | P | P | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.10 | Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (2) |
| University spinouts | C | O | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.35 | Resident patent applications (1) |
| Economic fitness | O | O | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.45 | High-technology exports (3), New export products (1) |
| Research citation impact | O | O | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.60 | none |
| Business entry efficiency | C | I | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.20 | Procedures to start a business (3), Time to start a business (3) |
| Resident trademark applications | O | O | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.30 | Resident industrial design applications (3), Resident patent applications (1) |
| Long-term unemployment share | O | O | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.20 | Unemployment rate (3) |
| Political polarisation | P | P | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.05 | none |
| Time to enforce a contract | C | Cdisputed | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.20 | Dispute resolution efficiency (3), Court case clearance rate (1) |
| New public software repositories | O | O | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.70 | none |
| Long-horizon research commitments | C | C | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.30 | none |
| Trade compliance efficiency | C | Cdisputed | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.30 | Border compliance time to export (3), Logistics performance (2) |
| Venture deals | C | O | 0.47 | 0.68 | 0.60 | Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (1) |
| New business density | C | O | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.35 | Business entry efficiency (1) |
| Border compliance time to export | C | Cdisputed | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.30 | Trade compliance efficiency (3) |
| Civil society strength | C | P | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.15 | none |
Evidence the panel asked for
Panelists name evidence they want to see. The list feeds the collection agenda.
| Evidence | Mentions | Dimensions |
|---|---|---|
| cross-agency delivery records | 327 | 1 |
| adult learning participation | 283 | 1 |
| court case clearance rate | 259 | 1 |
| venture first-round counts | 157 | 1 |
| institutional responsiveness timestamps | 157 | 1 |
| firm scale-up rate | 141 | 3 |
| gem tea rate | 97 | 2 |
| court case clearance rates | 91 | 1 |
| large project delivery dataset | 88 | 1 |
| adults doing digital tasks | 79 | 1 |
| perceived control over life | 79 | 1 |
| volunteering | 67 | 1 |
| government foresight capacity | 60 | 1 |
| large project delivery register | 59 | 1 |
| large project delivery record | 57 | 1 |
| civic participation | 52 | 1 |
| long-term unemployment share | 50 | 1 |
| sense of national belonging | 50 | 1 |
| volunteering data | 50 | 1 |
| trade compliance efficiency | 48 | 1 |
| hostile polarisation measure | 48 | 1 |
| large project delivery records | 48 | 1 |
| generalised interpersonal trust | 48 | 1 |
| government foresight capacity records | 42 | 1 |
| b-ready business entry score | 41 | 1 |
| venture deal counts | 41 | 1 |
| dispute resolution efficiency | 39 | 1 |
| behavioural trust measure | 38 | 1 |
| government foresight capacity register | 36 | 1 |
| civic participation item | 36 | 1 |