Capability agenda

Estonia

Generated 2026-08-28

The frame includes 52 countries. Each dimension runs from 0 to 100, with no overall ranking. Confidence sits beside each score. Read the known limits of the data before quoting one.

Open the profile: indicators, values, years and sources

Where Estonia stands

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Trend
Anticipation	63.9	0.64	+14 over 10 years using 5 indicators
Agency	84.8	0.61	+2.6 over 10 years using 4 indicators
Coordination	94.6	0.16	no trend
Trust	not scored	0.07	no trend
Learning	56.8	0.53	+0.7 over 10 years using 3 indicators
Experimentation	30.2	0.39	+7 over 10 years using 2 indicators
Adaptability	64.1	0.47	-7.3 over 10 years using 4 indicators
Building	30.8	0.54	-2.9 over 10 years using 4 indicators
Shared Purpose	82.4	0.26	+2.7 over 10 years using 2 indicators

weak0 to 25
below middle25 to 50
above middle50 to 75
strong75 and above

very thin0.00 to 0.25
thin0.25 to 0.45
usable0.45 to 0.65
good0.65 and above

very thin: The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
thin: A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
usable: Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
good: Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.

What to raise

These are the lowest scores with usable evidence. Thin evidence appears below.

Building

30.80.54

How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?

Uses 5 observed indicators. -2.9 over 10 years using 4 indicators.

Highest usable scores: Ireland 75.3, Singapore 71.2, China 64.9.

Missing indicators: Large project delivery, Firm scale-up rate.

Rejected datasets: Logistics infrastructure quality.

What to measure first

The evidence is too thin to manage these dimensions confidently.

Trust

0.07

How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?

Uses one observed indicator.

Missing indicators: Generalised interpersonal trust, Trust in public institutions, Cooperation beyond the in-group, Court case clearance rate.

Rejected datasets: Rule of law, Control of corruption, Intentional homicide rate.

Coordination

0.16

How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?

Uses 2 observed indicators.

Missing indicators: University-industry collaboration, Civil society strength, Public-private collaboration.

Rejected datasets: Government effectiveness, Regulatory quality, Logistics performance.

Shared Purpose

0.26

To what extent can people imagine themselves as participants in a common project?

Uses 2 observed indicators.

Missing indicators: Sense of national belonging, Volunteering, Political polarisation, Civic participation.

Rejected datasets: Voice and accountability.

Experimentation

0.39

How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?

Uses 4 observed indicators.

Missing indicators: Venture capital investment, Regulatory sandbox activity, University spinouts, Business share of R&D.

What to keep watching

These scores are at least 50 with usable evidence. They still need watching.

Agency84.80.61
Adaptability64.10.47
Anticipation63.90.64
Learning56.80.53

Missing data

27 requested indicators have no comparable dataset. Each lowers confidence. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.

Dimension	Missing indicator	What it asks
Anticipation	Government foresight capacity	Existence, mandate and continuity of a national strategic foresight function.
Anticipation	Long-horizon research share	Share of gross R&D expenditure classified as basic research.
Agency	Adult digital skills	Share of adults who can perform standard digital tasks.
Agency	Perceived control over life	Self-reported freedom of choice and control over the course of one’s life.
Coordination	University-industry collaboration	Intensity of research collaboration between universities and firms.
Coordination	Civil society strength	Autonomy, density and participatory reach of civil society organisations.
Coordination	Public-private collaboration	Frequency and scale of joint public-private delivery of national objectives.
Trust	Generalised interpersonal trust	Share agreeing that most people can be trusted.
Trust	Trust in public institutions	Confidence in national government, courts and civil service.
Trust	Cooperation beyond the in-group	Reported trust in people met for the first time and in people of another nationality.
Trust	Court case clearance rate	Civil and commercial cases resolved in a year as a share of cases filed in the same year.
Learning	Adult learning participation	Share of adults in formal or non-formal education and training in the last 12 months.
Learning	Research citation impact	Field-normalised citation impact of national research output.
Experimentation	Venture capital investment	Venture capital deployed as a share of GDP.
Experimentation	Regulatory sandbox activity	Number and breadth of live regulatory sandboxes and controlled trial regimes.
Experimentation	University spinouts	Companies formed to commercialise university research, per million people.
Experimentation	Business share of R&D	Share of gross R&D expenditure performed by business enterprises.
Adaptability	Long-term unemployment share	Unemployed for 12 months or more, as a share of total unemployment.
Adaptability	Export diversification	Inverse concentration of the export basket by product.
Adaptability	Disaster preparedness and recovery	Demonstrated capacity to prepare for and recover from major shocks.
Adaptability	Institutional responsiveness	Speed at which rules and public programmes are changed in response to new conditions.
Building	Large project delivery	Cost and schedule performance of major public infrastructure projects.
Building	Firm scale-up rate	Share of young firms reaching significant employment or turnover thresholds.
Shared Purpose	Sense of national belonging	Reported pride in and identification with the national community.
Shared Purpose	Volunteering	Share of adults who volunteered time to an organisation in the last month.
Shared Purpose	Political polarisation	Degree to which political differences run along a single hostile divide.
Shared Purpose	Civic participation	Active membership in associations, unions, parties and community organisations.

What the indicators miss about Estonia

Documented deliveries linked to missing indicators. They do not affect scores or confidence.

X-Road national data exchange layer (Building)
Estonia has run one data exchange layer for the whole state since 2001, and in July 2026 it carried 374.9 million queries between 1,000 connected organizations, 251 of them government bodies, across 3,785 services.
Internet voting in national elections (Shared Purpose)
Estonia has run legally binding internet voting since 2005, and at the 2023 Riigikogu election 312,182 votes, 51.1 percent of all votes cast, came in online, the first national election anywhere in which more than half the vote was digital.

Contribute

Fill a gap, file evidence or challenge an indicator at github.com/envisioning/national-capability-benchmark. The docs explain the method and decisions.

🇪🇪Estonia